China has demonstrated 7nm production without EUV, stockpiled ninety advanced lithography machines, and invested hundreds of billions to semiconductor self-sufficiency. Yet the gap with TSMC is not closing — it is, in fact, in some critical dimensions, widening. From the very outlook, it appears to be an engineering problem, not a political one. — 15 min read August 2023 — stripdown of Huawei Mate 60 Pro sent shockwaves through the Western semiconductor and defence establishments. Inside the device was a Kirin 9000s chip — manufactured by SMIC at what appeared to be done by a 7nm processing node. At the time, SMIC was not supposed to be able to do that. Clearly, it appeared to be ahead of its time. EUV lithography machines, widely considered as prerequisite for sub-10nm production, had been blocked from export to China since 2019. The US intelligence community had apparently missed their mark. Thus, policy circles scrambled. The headlines flashed, declaring ...